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IEM Dog and Pony Show

IEM Dog and Pony Show

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IEM Dog and Pony Show

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  1. IEM Dog and Pony Show Daryl Herzmann @akrherz Iowa State University

  2. Who am I and why am I here? • 2001 Meteor BS degree • Work for Iowa State University • Contractor with NWS • Co-Creator of NWSChat • I like free food (note: remove this before talk if no free food is present) Photo: AP Images

  3. See something you don’t like? Yell at me! Photo: AP Images

  4. Diplomatic Immunity June 2012 NOAA Team Member of the Month 2007 NOAA Environmental Hero

  5. What’s a Dog and Pony Show? Wikipedia - "Dog and pony show" is a colloquial term which has come to mean a highly promoted, often over-staged performance, presentation, or event designed to sway or convince opinion for political, or less often, commercial ends. Photo: Blogspot.com

  6. What shall we discuss? • Jacob B wanted to know about percentages of winter watches ending up in warnings. • My standard ranting about storm based warnings • IEM archives and web tools that may help you out • IEM Cow • IEM Raccoon

  7. Purpose of my maps is not to show good/bad offices, but show local gradients

  8. Chapter 1 Watches & Warnings

  9. 1 Oct 2005 – 28 Feb 2014 NWS Conversion of Watches into Warnings (double accounting means totals can be over 100%)

  10. 1 Oct 2005 – 28 Feb 2014 NWS Watches before a Warning (double accounting means totals can be over 100%)

  11. 10% of Blizzard Warnings are dumped by half way through warning Less than half make it to expiration 5% last double initial issuance

  12. 1 Oct 2005 – 28 Feb 2014 NWS Watches before a Warning (double accounting means totals can be over 100%)

  13. Chapter 2 My standard “Storm based” Warnings ranting

  14. Warning Process Evaluation Garden Variety Tornado We had better warn.

  15. Warning Process Evaluation Yippee, we can use our fine training and draw a polygon!

  16. Warning Process Evaluation I draw my fancy pants polygon out for 30 minutes. I’m done, right?

  17. daryl’s here Warning Process Evaluation Gasp, I’m warning for 5 counties! Sirens will go off In all 5!

  18. daryl’s stays asleep Warning Process Evaluation WarnGen clipping to the rescue!

  19. Warning Process Evaluation Whoa, what happened?

  20. Darn it daryl, I came here for stats (or free food), not altruistic hyperbole.

  21. NWS County SVR/TOR Warnings Storm Based Warnings NEXRAD

  22. NWS Storm Based SVR/TOR Warnings

  23. 1 Oct 2007, warnings changed http://www.weather.gov/sbwarnings/ “Storm-Based Warnings show the specific meteorological or hydrological threat area and are not restricted to geopolitical boundaries.”

  24. But what actually changed?NWS: Ignore the red, use the yellow 291 WUUS53 KDMX 182302 SVRDMX IAC007-117-125-135-181-182345- /O.NEW.KDMX.SV.W.0171.100618T2302Z-100618T2345Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 602 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN APPANOOSE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEASTERN LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 645 PM CDT * AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHARITON...OR 36 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DES MOINES...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALBIA...RUSSELL...MELROSE AND LOVILIA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...GET OUT NOW...AND SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THE BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROND DON'T DROWN. && LAT...LON 4089 9310 4090 9310 4090 9313 4112 9357 4116 9357 4116 9358 4135 9335 4105 9272 4084 9301 TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 300DEG 28KT 4114 9321 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN $$ SMALL

  25. These aren’t the polygons you’re looking for (Maryland == 26,000 sq km)

  26. Oh daryl, you and your 1% type academic friends alwaysfocused on the outliers….So another altruism:If less than 50% of warnings are “storm based”, can the program still keep its name?

  27. Quiz Question #1How do you cancel a portion of the warning? Answer: Cancel one of the counties in the warning! IAC181-182341- /O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-100618T2345Z/ ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IS CANCELLED... IAC007-117-125-135-182345- /O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-100618T2345Z/ ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARION...MONROE...EASTERN LUCAS AND NORTHWESTERN APPANOOSE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

  28. Quiz Question #2What’s wrong with this picture?

  29. Bah, that is La Crosse,we are Chanhassen, frickenMinnesota

  30. 1 Oct 2007 – 28 Feb 2014:Number of Polygon Vertices (SVR+TOR) 56.5% 8.7%

  31. Lets get quantitative • Perimeter Influence • How much of the polygon perimeter coincides with a political boundary • Size Reduction • How much smaller was the warning than the counties it was issued against.

  32. ~ 2 % of all warnings

  33. Nationwide Average: 65%

  34. Storm Based Warning size reduction by number of counties in warning

  35. Storm Based Warning # of Counties 0.7% of total

  36. Oh daryl, what about this? • Perimeter ratio is small • So lets compute another metric measuring distance of vertex to county border County Warning

  37. Overall Average: 75% Overall: 75%

  38. Academic Thought Experiment Take TIME..MOT.LOC and draw my own warning: 30 min duration ~10 km left ~10 and increase to 30 km to the right Which will #win ?

  39. Purple box is the warning from the automated algorithm