The emergence of the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh and the corresponding decline of the Bhartiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is the deciding trend in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

At around 2 p.m, the INDIA bloc was well ahead of the BJP and its allies in Uttar Pradesh.

Samajwadi party was leading in 38 seats and Congress in 7, together were are leading in 45 of the 80 seats. On the other hand, BJP was ahead in 33 seats with very precarious margins. Its latest partner Rashtriya Lok Dal was ahead in one seat.

Apna Dal (Sonelal) President and union minister Anupriya Patel was ahead in Mirzapur while it was trailing in the other seat of Robertsganj by more than 26296 votes.

NDA partner Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party’s (SBSP) lone candidate Arvind Rajbhar, son of SBSP Om Prakash Rajbhar was trailing in Ghosi by more than 50,000 votes.

Similarly, NDA’s other partner Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) candidate Pravin Nishad,son of its President Sanjay Nishad was trailing from SP’s own Nishad candidate Laxmikant Pappu Nishad by more than 74,000 votes from Sant Kabir Nagar.

Key candidates like even Prime Minister Narendra Modi was trailing in the early rounds but had picked up a lead of over a lakh by afternoon. Other stars and union ministers of the saffron party who were trailing included Smriti Irani from Amethi, Sanjiv Balyan from Muzzafarnagar, Ajay Kumar ‘Teni’ from Khiri, Kaushal Kishore from Mohanlalganj and Niranjan Jyoti from Fatehpur.

The key to this eminent victory at this early juncture clearly appears to be the success of Samajwadi party President Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy centered around ‘Pichre’ (backward) Dalit and Alpsankhyak (minorities) or PDA. Breaking the existing perception of SP being mainly a MY (Muslim-Yadav) party he broadened its social base by distributing tickets in a big way to non Yadav OBCs like Kurmis were given 13 tickets, Kushwaha, Maurya, Pal, Bind ,Nishad and other most backward OBC found a place in SP’s list . Only 4 Muslims and 5 Yadavs were given tickets.

This time even Dalits appear to have supported the SP in a big way after Mayawati’s machinations became clear to them. She had made her intentions very clear by the way she distributed tickets which were meant to undermine the INDIA bloc candidates’ prospects, and it is doing so in a big way. Most shocking was the manner in which she humiliated her own nephew and successor, Akash Anand, by divesting him from all responsibilities after he delivered a hard hitting speech against the BJP in the early phase of the election.

It is popularly said that Uttar Pradesh leads the road to Delhi, this time there appears to be too many roadblocks for the NDA.

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